Quantitative Breakdown of La Liga Season 2014-2024

In-Depth Analysis of La Liga Season 2014 to 2024: Performance Trends and Strategic Insights

Analysis Hypothesis

"Given the current state of the table and past seasons' data, what's the realistic probability that each team could still win La Liga?"

Data Exploration

The dataset head, which displays the first 20 rows of the dataset, provides an initial glimpse into the data.,It serves as a quick overview of the information contained in the dataset.,The first few rows offer an insight into the structure and format of the data.,This section is crucial for understanding the variables and their initial values.,Examining the dataset head aids in identifying any potential issues or anomalies at the beginning of the data.

These are the first 20 rows of the dataset used for the analysis

Rank Team Match Played Won Draw Lost Goals For Goals Against Points points/per_match Team Top Scorer Goalkeeper Season xG (Expected Goals) xGA (Expected Goal Against) xGD (Expected Goal Diffence)
1Barcelona38304411021942.47Lionel Messi - 43Claudio Bravo2014NaNNaNNaN
2Real Madrid38302611838922.42Cristiano Ronaldo - 48Iker Casillas2014NaNNaNNaN
3Atlético Madrid3823966729782.05Antoine Griezmann - 22Miguel Ángel Moyá2014NaNNaNNaN
4Valencia38221157032772.03Daniel Parejo - 12Diego Alves2014NaNNaNNaN
5Sevilla3823787145762.00Carlos Bacca - 20Sergio Rico2014NaNNaNNaN
6Villarreal381612104837601.58Luciano Vietto - 12Sergio Asenjo2014NaNNaNNaN
7Athletic Club381510134241551.45Aritz Aduriz - 18Gorka Iraizoz2014NaNNaNNaN
8Celta Vigo381312134744511.34Nolito - 13Sergio Álvarez2014NaNNaNNaN
9Málaga38148164248501.32Juanmi - 8Carlos Kameni2014NaNNaNNaN
10Espanyol381310154751491.29Sergio García - 14Kiko Casilla2014NaNNaNNaN
11Rayo Vallecano38154194668491.29Alberto Bueno - 17Toño2014NaNNaNNaN
12Real Sociedad381113144451461.21Carlos Vela - 9Gerónimo Rulli2014NaNNaNNaN
13Elche38118193562411.08Jonathas - 14Przemysław Tytoń2014NaNNaNNaN
14Levante38910193467370.97David Barral - 11Diego Mariño2014NaNNaNNaN
15Getafe38107213364370.97Álvaro Vázquez - 7Vicente Guaita2014NaNNaNNaN
16La Coruña38714173560350.92Lucas Pérez - 6Fabricio2014NaNNaNNaN
17Granada38714172964350.92Youssef El-Arabi - 8Roberto2014NaNNaNNaN
18Eibar3898213455350.92Mikel Arruabarrena - 9Xabi Irureta2014NaNNaNNaN
19Almería3888223564290.76Tomer Hemed - 8Rubén2014NaNNaNNaN
20Córdoba38311242268200.53Nabil Ghilas - 7Juan Carlos2014NaNNaNNaN

Team's Tournament Appearances

This represents the total number of seasons in which each team has participated, providing insight into the frequency and consistency of their appearances within the dataset over time.

Squad Count
Barcelona11
Villarreal11
Real Madrid11
Celta Vigo11
Athletic Club11
Real Sociedad11
Sevilla11
Valencia11
Atlético Madrid11
Betis10
Getafe10
Espanyol9
Alavés8
Levante7
Rayo Vallecano7
Granada7
Eibar7
Osasuna7
Valladolid5
Girona5
Mallorca5
Las Palmas5
Leganés5
La Coruña4
Elche4
Málaga4
Cádiz4
Almería3
Sporting Gijón2
Huesca2
Córdoba1

Descriptive Stats of the La Liga Dataset

Descriptive statistics of the La Liga dataset provide a comprehensive statistical summary of the numerical columns within the dataset.These statistics offer valuable insights into the overall distribution, central tendency, and variability of the data, helping to better understand the characteristics and patterns present within the dataset.

Statistic Rank Match Played Won Draw Lost Goals For Goals Against Points points/per_match Season xG (Expected Goals) xGA (Expected Goal Against) xGD (Expected Goal Difference)
count220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0160.0160.0160.0
mean10.538.014.069.8714.0649.949.952.051.372019.048.8448.840.0
std5.780.06.212.915.4817.7513.1417.470.463.1711.628.6217.13
min1.038.03.02.01.022.018.016.00.422014.029.332.5-33.0
25%5.7538.010.08.010.038.041.041.01.082016.040.5842.88-11.0
50%10.538.013.010.015.046.050.048.51.282019.045.8548.3-3.15
75%15.2538.017.2512.018.057.058.061.01.612022.053.9854.4211.0
max20.038.030.018.030.0118.094.095.02.52024.091.576.249.5

Key Findings (Season 2014-2024)

Based on our analysis, Barcelona has an 86.164% chance of being the champion of Spain.
Real Madrid follows with a 13.836% chance.
The 7th position for the Conference League is most likely to be Celta Vigo.
The teams most likely to be relegated are 'Las Palmas' and 'Valladolid'.

2025 La Liga Win Probabilities

This bar chart visualizes the projected championship win probabilities for La Liga teams in the 2025 season, based on the provided analysis.

Top Finishes by Team in Last 10 Years

This chart shows how many times each team finished in the top 3 ranks over the last 10 years.

Frequency of Top 3 Finishes by Team

Rank Team Count
1Barcelona6
1Real Madrid4
1Atlético Madrid1
2Real Madrid5
2Barcelona4
2Atlético Madrid2
3Atlético Madrid7
3Real Madrid2
3Barcelona1
3Girona1

Historical Winning Teams Analysis

This section presents a comprehensive analysis of the teams that secured 1st place in each La Liga season from 2014 to 2024. It highlights not only the title-winning teams for each year but also provides key performance metrics including their total points earned, average points per match, and overall goal difference. This analysis offers valuable insights into the performance standards required to win the league.

Season Team Points pts/per_match Goal Difference
2014Barcelona942.4789
2015Barcelona912.3983
2016Real Madrid932.4565
2017Barcelona932.4570
2018Barcelona872.2954
2019Real Madrid872.2945
2020Atlético Madrid862.2642
2021Real Madrid862.2649
2022Barcelona882.3250
2023Real Madrid952.5061
2024Barcelona882.3263

The average points per match for past 10 winning teams is: 2.368 and the average points required is: 89.82.